"Our church is going to call a new pastor soon, and we need to put together some information about our congregation and our community. Is there anything you can do to help us?" The answer to this familiar request is "Yes!" Research Services has some new research tools designed for leaders in congregations. As a first step, we would suggest reviewing the statistics from your congregation's Session Annual Statistical Report for the most recent 10 years.
If the following graph, showing the number of members over the last 10 years, were that of your congregation, what might it tell you about your church's past and future? Let's take a look.
First Presbyterian Church, Anytown, USA
160
x x x
140 X x x x x x x
x
120 x
100
80
60
40
20
0---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995
This church has enjoyed a stable number of members, bucking the national trend among PCUSA congregations (which have declined on average about 1.4 percent annually). The church's size is close to the national average for PCUSA congregations--about 128 members. However, the membership dropped in the last calendar year from 142 members to 120 members. If this trend continues will this church be able to afford a full-time minister in the future?
Lyle Schaller asserts that congregations averaging fewer than 120 in worship attendance will not be able to afford a full-time pastor. This congregation has only about 90 in worship each Sunday. Is the congregation willing to make the drastic changes needed to increase the number of worship visitors and new members? Are they willing to explore options for part-time, bivocational, or commissioned lay pastors? Or will they wait for a financial crisis to unfold in the next few years? These and other tough questions are likely to be asked by their potential pastor candidates.
What else could be learned from these trends? Worship attendance has been steadily rising since 1990 (not shown here). With 90 in worship each Sunday this congregation can boast that 75% of their members are regular attenders. This suggests a high level of commitment among the current members and overall satisfaction with the worship service. While smaller-membership congregations tend to have a higher percentage of their members attending worship services than do larger-membership churches, this congregation is still above average in its worship attendance. Low relative worship attendance--defined as average attendance that is less than 50 percent of the congregation's total membership--would be a cause for concern for a congregation of any size.
A third trend to consider when diagnosing a congregation's general health is church school enrollment. A graph of this congregation's church school enrollment for the last 10 years (not shown here) would reveal a steady upward trend. In 1996, First Presbyterian Church of Anytown had 84 enrolled in church school. This means that 70 percent of the membership is involved in the educational program of the church. Again, this is a positive indicator for congregational life. Most PCUSA congregations, regardless of size, report church school enrollment that is less than 50 percent of their congregation's total membership.
Can you "picture" these three trends for your congregation? What would they say about the life and health of your congregation? What factors in your congregation help explain the membership trends in your congregation? What factors in the community are relevant to your membership trends?
Having trouble focusing on your congregation's picture? Order a 10-year trend report for your congregation from Research Services. The report presents trends for church membership, worship attendance, total contributions, and church school enrollment plus 32 other variables (e.g., gains and losses by type, expenditures by type, and mission giving). It's described in our Help for Congregations page or call Research Services at (800) 997-8934.
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