"Our presbytery suffered a net loss of members again this year. I am so discouraged." The "net loss blues" is an all too common ailment for presbytery leaders and others concerned about the future of the Presbyterian Church. But before you reach for your favorite prescription, take some time to look at the factors behind the ailment.
If the following graph, showing the number of members, worship attendance, and church school enrollment, were that of your presbytery, what might it tell you? First, membership in the presbytery has been slowly declining for ten years. It is not an illness of the last year or two. The average decline over the last ten years has been 1.6 percent, only slightly higher than the 1.2 percent for all PCUSA presbyteries. One source of the decline in this presbytery is the demise of five congregations and zero new church developments since 1988 (not shown here). Second, the graph reveals that worship attendance has not suffered to the same degree as membership. However, the average number of worshipers per congregation in 1997 was 57 compared to an average of 65 in 1990 (the first year this statistic was reported). Those 8 missing people in each congregation remind us of the difference each committed person can make.
These statistics are available from a new report from Research Services, Ten-Year Trends in Your Presbytery. Other charts and tables in this extensive report give us insight into the life and history of an individual presbytery. One chart, Gains and Losses, shows the good news that professions of faith for youth 17 years of age or younger have increased each year in this presbytery to an all time high of 218 in 1997. In addition, 178 persons 18 years of age or older have joined the presbytery's congregations each year. Further, the total gains per 100 members, 5.8 members in 1997, is at a 10-year high!
Unfortunately, there is another side to the coin--that of losses. The number of deaths per 100 members in this presbytery, 2.1 per 100 members, is also at a 10-year high. Other types of losses (e.g., members moving away, transferring membership to another congregation) are less dramatic and have declined over time. The latter statistic tells us that the presbytery is doing a good job of retaining its present members.
The story behind the "net loss" number is that in this presbytery, despite all its successes, it is being overwhelmed by the demographic tide of many older, aging members. Efforts to attract and retain members have not kept pace with the large number of deaths of older Presbyterian members.
The implications are clear. Continued care and nurturing of congregations of all sizes and types will yield good overall health for the presbytery in the future. Present ailments, while painful, are not symptoms of a unknown virus without a cure.
What is the diagnosis for your presbytery? Order a 10-year trend report for your presbytery (or for any other group of churches) from Research Services. The report presents trends on the number of congregations, average membership and worship attendance; percentages of congregations in racial-ethnic categories; number of churches organized, merged, and dissolved; contributions and expenditures by type; ranking of churches by total receipts, mission giving, and per member giving; baptisms and deaths per 100 confirmed members; and number of ministers by race/ethnicity and gender. Graphs of key trends are included. The report is available for $85 from Research Services: call 1-800-997-8934. The 10-Year Trend Report for Congregations is also available from Research Services at the same phone number. This $25 report shows what's been happening in your congregation recently.
Research Services